CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-02-19T16:00:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2014 Feb 20 0937 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Two full halo CMEs occurred. The first one at 16:00 UT on February 19, related to a filament eruption close to central meridian. The bulk of the material is heading south, but a glancing blow at the Earth can be expected on February 23 around 01:00 UT (using the CACTus speed of 461 km/s). The second one was related to a C3.3 flare from NOAA AR 1982. This CME will most likely arrive to the Earth. Arrival time expected for February 22 around 03:00 UT, using the CACTus speed of 1045 km/s. Due to its high speed, the second CME will likely interact on its way with the previous one. 

10 MeV protons have passed the threshold of 10 protons/cm2-s-sr. The 50 and 100 MeV fluxes seem to have reached a peak at 3 and 0.7 protons/cm2-s-sr respectively and are for the moment descending (this may change).

There is confirmation from STEREO that the M3.0 flare was accompanied by a CME, it seems to be directed towards the west, more information will be given as the data becomes available (no LASCO data yet).
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224                                           #
# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491                                           #
#                                                                    #
# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be.  Please do not reply #
# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to     #
# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use      #
# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead.                                   #
# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php        #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement